I invest a lot in taking online courses. Some are a few hundred dollars, and some are a few thousand dollars! I love them because it's an opportunity to learn from an expert—with YEARS of experience—who took the time to analyze their craft, organize it in a digestible way, and then methodically teach it.
I know that I could search online for answers or learn through the school of hard knocks, but beyond the time investment, it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. I like having an expert tell me what's essential and in an order that builds on itself. Plus, most free resources don't go as deep—they don't provide the exact samples, scripts, models, etc.
Taking online courses is one of the highest ROIs I know.
But you can't just watch them like a TV show. After taking many courses, I've devised a method that works well for me. If I spend time and money on a course, I must get the most out of it.
I'll get to my exact steps, but first, let's talk about video games.
Mastering Video Games
Growing up, I mastered video games by following a specific method:
I'd play the game, experiment, and eventually figure out the controls. My brother and I were usually evenly matched, and often, he picked up skills faster than me.
Then I'd read the game manual cover to cover. Because I had the context of the game, the instructions would stick, and I'd learn the advanced skills of the game.
I'd leapfrog my brother. If it were a fighting or sports game, I'd demolish him.
Eventually, I'd teach him what I learned, he'd improve, and we'd become competitive again.
It's a bit of a ready-fire-aim strategy: try something (and flail), then learn how to do it properly, try again with much better results, and then teach someone else to cement the concepts. Then, keep practicing while re-reading the instructions to learn specific parts as needed.
So, when I'm considering an online course, it's because I've been trying something and feel like I'm flailing. Or it's because I have knowledge gaps that searching online doesn't fill, and I want an expert to fill those in for me.
Let's get into my process.
Step 0: Read The Book
Before I buy a course, I'll read the creator's work. If they have a book, I'll read it. If not, I'll download their "free tool/report" and subscribe to their emails. I want to sample their teaching style and expertise. Ideally, it's something paid that took effort to create (like a book) because they're not trying to sell me anymore; they're in teaching mode.
It has several benefits: 1) It's a cheap way to sample the course beyond their sales pitch. 2) I can try implementing what I learn to see how effective it is, setting me up for the lessons to sink in deeper. And 3) It often gives me a solid overview of the scope of the course.
If I don't have time (or interest) to read the book, tool, or report, I shouldn't take the course.
Step 1: Binge Watch Everything
I start a course with many questions and find it difficult to focus on the current lesson until I know my specific questions will be answered. So, my solution is to binge-watch everything. I don't take any notes or try to remember anything. Instead, I let the entire thing wash over me.
I aim to get the lay of the land and answer my burning questions. My experience is that there can sometimes be a lot of filler or things I already know, and binging helps me figure out where to dive deep in step 2.
But despite speed running through it, I still have TONS of ah-ha moments because I already have specific questions.
Step 2: Do The Exercises and Rewatch Lessons
Once I finish the course, I start over. But this time, I do the exercises and then rewatch the lessons on subjects I want to sink in. I'll also take notes and apply what I've learned. Doing the exercises before rewatching helps me identify gaps and know where to pay attention when I rewatch the lesson.
I usually find that I spend half as much time on this step as on the bring-watching. Part of the reason is that I don't rewatch everything (like intro videos)—I'm only diving deep into my knowledge gaps.
Doing the exercises is critical because I learn best when I try it. I even do those that seem trivial because A) I start with the assumption that the expert added it for a reason, and B) I often pick up a couple of knowledge bits from doing it.
For example, one exercise involved identifying good investment markets. I already knew how to do it, but forcing myself to do it revealed some areas for improvement.
Step 3: Refresher
I don't always do this, but sometimes I'll go back 6-12 months later and rewatch parts of a course. This is especially true for newer skills because I know there were nuggets of knowledge I wasn't ready to receive.
For example, when I learned to play bass guitar, I got proficient enough to play in my church's worship band but still had gaps. So, after playing for a few months, I rewatched some of the lessons and picked up skills I missed the first time.
Also, once a month, I'll pick one or two lessons from a course and rewatch them. I'll pick ones that feel relevant to whatever I'm working on. I'm not trying to learn anything specific - I'm simply trying to re-steep myself in the concept. And often, I have an "oh yeah… I remember that now" moment.
So that's my process. Online courses are one of the best investments you can make. For $200 - $2,000, you can learn from an expert in an organized, comprehensive course at your own pace. It's incredible.
I regularly get calls from MBA grad students with a similar situation: "I took a few data science classes, love it, and want to get a job doing data science. However, my resume doesn't show much, if any, related experience. How do I get a job doing data science?"
It's a great question, and it makes sense why they'd call me. I was in that exact position when I graduated. The only difference was at the time the term "data science" didn't exist and tools were still in their infancy (Google had just bought Youtube, and we were all still wondering if this "video upload" site thing was viable).
In 2010 I wrote about a general post about finding a job, which is still relevant, and here's my specific answer to aspiring data scientists.
1. Define Your Talents
The Talents
Data science, like Marketing and HR, is a broad term with many jobs and skills within. So when you tell me, a person looking to hire data scientists, you want to be a data scientist, I'm still not sure what you mean. To which I usually follow up with the profound question of, "What does that mean to you?" I typically get a bland response simply because they're still discovering what it all means themselves. Here's some guidance:
First, decide if you're going to be a specialist or semi-generalist. A specialist is easy: focus on one thing and be the best in the world at it. Get amazing at producing accurate forecasts. Become THE data cleaning person. A warning: you'll be competing against PhDs in this space.
My recommendation is to go down the semi-generalist path. Find an interesting combination of skills/interests that's helpful. You're good at project management AND forecasting? That's interesting. You crunch numbers AND can give a presentation to executives? Now you have my attention.
HBR wrote a fantastic article called Data Science and the Art of Persuasion, and I recommend reading it at least once. It breaks data science into six talents. In brief, here they are:
Project management: do you know agile/scrum project management? Can you be an effective scrum master and get product owners to define done and prioritize?
Data wrangling: can you find, clean, and structure data? Are you good at automating processes?
Data analysis: can you find meaning in data and apply it to a business question?
Subject expertise: what business model or industry are you interested in?
Design: are you good at data visualization? There's the technical side, but also the art side of it.
Storytelling: Can you write a narrative around the data and analysis? In my experience, this is the weakest talent on a data science team.
The People
If you read that list and still aren't sure, go talk to people. Actually, no matter what, go talk to people. Informational interviews are amazing. It's the lowest risk way to learn about something (which, if you messaged me to chat, and I asked to you read this first, and you are right now... good! keep going!).
Find other data scientists. Find people who work with data scientists. Find people who work in data-intensive industries.
I go into more depth in my original post, but here's the high level: come up with a set of questions to ask everyone. You may not ask all of them, but having a pre-set list will give you the confidence to reach out because you're prepared. Talk to at least 12 people, more if you can swing it. I talked to 2-3 per week while in school.
The Companies
My observation is there are three types of companies. They all have pros and cons. After talking with people and evaluating your talents, one of these types of companies may attract you.
Large companies, especially in data-driven industries, typically have a dedicated data science team (though the name might be different). Or, at least a specific role dedicated to data analysis. All fortune 500, if not 5,000 have this setup. These types of jobs tend to have narrow scopes. For example, my job at HP is to forecast how much money HP will make selling ink. Very specific. I use all 6 talents to do it, but my scope is narrow.
Small to medium size companies will have a small marketing team, but no data scientists. In my opinion, these are interesting positions. You don't need to be the best analyst in the world, but you can bring your skills and add a lot of value to the original position. For example, my internship was with a 500-person credit union. My job was to create a new checking account offering. I did competitive research, ran a survey... and did an analysis on their customer database. Nobody else on the team knew how to access this fantastic resource! Granted, I had to figure out how to get access and build my own tools (data wrangling), but I was OK with that. It was like I had superpowers relative to the rest of the team. The pay is typically less, but the variety is more, and the expectations are lower. This could be a perfect first step.
Boutique analysis consultants are super small, 1-5 people, companies that specialize 100% on data analytics. Like a typical consultant, they come into a company, learn about their problem, and do an analysis on behalf of the company. These are harder to get into, but you can learn a ton as an apprentice in a short amount of time. Be willing to do the grunt work for long hours.
You think you know what you want to do, or at least have a plan to figure it out? Great! Let's move on.
2. Cultivate Your Talents Into Skills
"The separation of talent and skill is one of the greatest misunderstood concepts for people who are trying to excel, who have dreams, who want to do things. Talent you have naturally. Skill is only developed by hours and hours and hours of beating on your craft." - Will Smith
The lack of experience on your resume is tough. Unfortunately, there's no shortcut. To get the experience, you actually need to practice data science. The good news is you don't need a job to "beat on your craft". There's almost an unlimited amount of data thanks to the internet. Pick a subject, find some data, and do an analysis.
FiveThirtyEight has its own dataset and often points to its original sources within an article. Sports data is interesting, so is political/polling data. There's census data, economic data, Zillow home sales data, stock market data, and so much more! There's data specific to an industry you're interested in. Collect your own data!
I tend to collect my own data and pick ones relevant to my life.
I ran a half marathon, and they posted the results online. So I turned it into an infographic. I'm particularly fond of this one.
I tracked my steps, weight, and food. Then I analyzed it and shared what I found.
Can you guess my talents? I like the design and storytelling side. I'm much lighter on the technical data analysis and data wrangling parts.
If I were looking to get a job, I would do at least one per week. Beat on your craft to hone your skills and gain experience. We'll talk about what to do with all this effort next.
There is one more way to gain experience: [pro-bono] freelance work. There are a bunch of small businesses and organizations that would love help analyzing their data, but they don't know how to do it (like my credit union example), and often times they can't afford to hire someone to do it. This is an opportunity!
For example, I talk to contractors and landlords all the time who would LOVE to create an annual budget but don't really know how to go about it. Volunteer to take a look and help. I created a forecasting tool in R for my church to better predict giving trends. I worked with a local broker to create a "state of the real estate market" report he could share with clients. It didn't pay much, but it led to future projects. In fact, don't do it to get paid. Do it to help, and then add it to your resume.
Another interesting option for freelance work is to signup for Upwork. It's a website that companies go to for one-time projects and/or part-time work. Often times it's remote. I've hired 4 people from the site, and it's fantastic. Tip: I've noticed that data scientists call themselves a "financial analyst" on the site. If anything, it'll give you interviewing experience.
Got a plan in place to cultivate your talents? Let's show it off.
3. Showcase Your Skills
In the graphic design world, people have portfolios. In the software development world, people have gits. But they're the same thing: a way to showcase your work. As a data scientist, you want to create the same thing.
Think about it from an employer perspective: I'm about to take a considerable risk, financially and culturally, to bring someone into my organization. I want to reduce as much uncertainty as possible. That's why employers rely so heavily on recommendations and another reason why informational interviews are so important.
Reading accomplishments on a resume are helpful, but reduce my risk a lot and SHOW me what you did. That's why designers have portfolios. I don't care what school you went to, I want to see for myself you know how to draw.
So, create a WordPress site and find a theme that works for you. Or whatever tool you want - don't overthink this. Upload your projects to Google Drive and share the folder. It's not as pretty, but I'm not evaluating you on how pretty it is.
Then, as you do projects, add it to your website. Start with every. Single. Homework. Assignment. At this point in the game, you need volume, you can add a featured section later. But don't just post the homework, take one more step that'll blow everyone out of the water: create a short video where you walk through what you did. Wrote some R code? Use Zoom to share your screen and talk through it. Embed the video using Youtube (it turns out it was viable) along with the code. Or put the code in Github and link to it.
Did you have a final project with a presentation? Record yourself giving the presentation (do it again by yourself if the presentation came and went). Then record again showing the actual analysis. Show your work. For group projects point out the work you did.
I use video all the time, and it's fantastic. When I make an offer on a property, I don't just kick over the offer and hope the seller can figure out my thinking. I record a quick video on Zoom, upload it to Youtube and share it with the document. I get comments all the time about how professional it looks. You should do the same thing. I personally choose to keep the video on so they can see me and my expressions, but you don't have to. This is especially important if your talent is storytelling.
I made a sample presentation so you can see exactly what I'm talking about. Mine was done off the cuff. In reality, I'd script out what I wanted to say a lot more... and slow down my talking. Anyways, here it is:
You can also make tutorials. You can comment on other people's work. Flowing Data is a perfect example of these types of posts. So is Edward Tufte's Twitter account. If you do the commentary, go further than they do. Go into detail on what's good and bad.
Then put the link to your portfolio on your resume.
When following up after an informational interview, you might mention a project you did, share the link, and ask for their feedback on how to make it better. Then... follow their advice to improve it.
4. The Briefcase Technique
If you do this, you'll get interviews. Now it's time to knock it out of the park. Part of the interview preparation process is researching the company. Take it one step further and do an analysis for the company. The closer you can get to what you'll actually be working on, the better. If you interview for me, look for IDC data on printers. If you can't do that, look at HP's historical revenue.
Imagine being able to say, "I was looking at IDC shipment sales, and I found that the market is shrinking. Here, let me show you. (take a paper with a chart out of a briefcase, or portfolio, whatever). I noticed X Y Z... And a question." Or, "It looks like HP is under-represented in the copier space. I recommend investing more there." Or, "why isn't HP in the copier space?"
Look, you're probably not going to teach me something or uncover some new insight. That's not the point! Your goal is to show me you care, to show off your skills, and to demonstrate you're going to take the extra step of a top performer.
Final Thoughts
I know what I'm suggesting is a lot of work, but the results will be worth it. Plus, it's a low-risk way for you to discover if you genuinely like data science without having to commit to a job to find out.
If you're going to invest in rental real estate, follow this one rule so you'll actually make money.
Pay no more, including repairs, than 100x the potential monthly rent.
So, if you think you can rent a place for $1,000 a month. Don't pay more than $100,000 for the property.
If the property requires $20,000 of repairs, don't pay more than $80,000 for the property.
Follow this rule, and you'll make money. It's that simple.
What's the name of this rule?
Some people call it the "1% Rule" because you can multiply the value by 1% (or divide by 100) to see what the rent "should" be. I like to think of it as the "100x Rule" and start with the rent.
What about all those property calculators and spreadsheets? Surely more analysis is needed.
Yes, you can get more detailed and calculate an accurate bottoms-up analysis of the property and calculate a precise return on investment (ROI = annual profit divided by your cash contribution). And yes, larger multi-family properties, especially if multiple investors are involved, requires a higher level of rigor to validate the numbers. And flips are a different type of investing which need a different kind of analysis.
But you know what you'll find when you do the detailed analysis? In general, you won't want to pay more than 100x the rent.
I've analyzed a few hundred properties, and it's shocking how consistent this rule is.
Why is this rule so important?
The primary reason for investing in rentals is to generate income over a long period by renting a product. A product that requires maintenance, working with a customer, and complying with laws. These all require time and money. And if you don't meet the rule, you'll find your margins are too thin to do all the repairs you want to do. And you won't be able to afford to hire someone else to manage the property or do the maintenance.
So instead you'll spend your time doing it all and making so little money, you'll be more rooted in the rat race. All the while telling yourself that the value is going up, or eventually, the mortgage will be paid off. When in reality, you should have put the money in an index fund and spent your time with family, or generating income some other way (overtime, freelancing, second job, side businesses, etc.). You would have been able to retire sooner because you'd have a higher return on your time.
It's sad when I talk to a landlord who's tired from working all the time and don't feel close to retirement despite owning a million dollars worth of rentals. Had they used this 100x rule, they would either be close to retirement, or able to afford to hire someone else to manage the property.
What if I provide a higher down payment to ensure a positive ROI?
You can, but you'll find your ROI drops to the point that you're better off putting the money in an index fund and keeping your weekends free.
But I can't find any properties that meet that rule?
Then wait or look somewhere else. Don't buy just because you have money burning a hole in your pocket. Yes, real estate can be a good investment, but only if you buy at the right price. Which is no more than 100x the monthly rent.
It took us 18 months to find our first deal that met the rule. Our annual ROI is 50%.
Some investors use a higher standard. They only buy places that meet a 50x rule. You can find them in the midwest. It's rare to find those ratios on the coast.
Fair warning: to mee the rule, you'll have to look at properties that need some work. Not necessarily a lot, but some. But that's fine because you're not looking for your dream house. The properties also tend to have been owned for a while, and the current owner is looking to sell for reasons beyond maximizing the sale price. So prepare yourself mentally.
What if I love the neighborhood? Or any other reason other than the ROI?
That's fine, but be honest about it. I get the appeal of wanting to buy your neighbor's house so you can control who lives there. But you might have to be OK with losing money and/or making less than if you put the money into an index fund.
But property values go up over time. So it's OK if I lose money, right?
That's speculation. Ask people who purchased in 2007 how that turned out. Plus, and here's the crucial part: Housing prices tend to rise slower than the stock market. I laugh when people talk about how their house price doubled over the last 10 years, implying they're a financial genius. Cool. So did the stock market without the costs of taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
Think about this: if you live in an area where houses don't meet the 100x Rule, not only do you want to avoid buying rentals there, you're better off to rent yourself. That's right, if you did a detailed analysis of living costs, you'd find that it costs more to own a home than to rent when this rule isn't met.
If your goal isn't to minimize your living expenses - perhaps you want to guarantee your kids go to a specific school - then be honest about it. Jessi and I bought the place we're currently living at for multiple non-financial reasons and happily pay the higher mortgage and taxes.
What if I currently own a place that doesn't meet that rule?
Is your goal to maximize your ROI? Be honest. If so, sell it and buy something that meets the rule.
If I came across a property with a possible ROI higher than my lowest performing rental, I'd trade up. Yes, there are advanced strategies to minimize tax liabilities (such as a 1031 exchange), but stay focused on the big picture: If the goal is to maximize your ROI, you should sell a property if it's not performing, especially if it's equal to an index fund. Why bet on a possible future when you know you can get a better return today?
The 100x rule
It's not a perfect rule and doing a detailed analysis is good to do once you're further along. But if more landlords followed this rule, they would have the margins to properly maintain the property, make a significant contribution to their retirement, and avoid many problems that can arise later (like putting up with a bad tenant for too long because you don't want to lose the rent income).
It'll also give the margin to afford a property manager if life changes, and you no longer want to do it all yourself.
That's why we follow this rule when investing in rental and why I think you should too.
I'm training for a Tough Mudder next weekend. A Tough Mudder is a 10 mile run with 20 obstacles in your way. It's a combination of cardio, strength, fear factor, and group effort. I'm excited and nervous. My training goals are simple: run 10 miles non-stop, do 40 push-ups, and weigh 165lbs. That would put me in enough shape to enjoy the event. Here's a trailer for the event:
So, I started running semi-regularly in the middle of April. My basic training method is two short runs in the middle of the week (3-4 miles) and a progressively longer run on the weekend (add 1 mile each week). Here's how I did:
Despite starting to run regularly, my weight continued to go up! So being a data person, I started tracking my calories (via MyFitnessPal) in addition to my weight (via a Withings Scale) and my motion (via Apple Watch). Here are the results (all the time periods line up):
Some observations:
I hit my goal of 165 lbs and running 10 miles non-stop! (I can also do 40 push-ups) I am very happy I won't be carrying those extra 18 pounds with me over giant walls.
The day I started tracking my weight, my weight started falling. That's how my body's built. I hated it when playing football, but now it's good.
Despite regularly increasing my miles, my peak calories burned stayed about the same. In other words, I "made up for it" the rest of the day by not moving as much.
There are days when I don't eat a lot. For example, yesterday I skipped breakfast and lunch; not on purpose, it just happens sometimes. MyFitnessPal yells at my when that happens.
My average weight loss has been 0.46 lbs per day, but can swing as much as 3 lbs each day! I'll be honest, this can be a little bit of an emotional roller coaster.
So? How did I lose 18 pounds in 37 days? I ran a bunch and ate less. But there's more behind it.
The Science
Science tells us that if you spend more calories than you consume, you'll lose weight. Now, how fast you lose weight and how much is muscle vs fat depends on the type of food you eat, how big the calorie deficit is, and the type of movement you do (strength vs cardio vs nothing).
As a general eating rule: eat/drink almost zero sugar, eat less carbs (breads & fruit), and watch your dairy. Protein and fats (ironically) are good for you because your body stores that energy differently. Whole foods are your friend. If you want to lose weight fast, good examples are the Slow Carb diet and Keto diet. I'm not following either of them strictly, but staying close to the principals.
As for exercise: try to incorporate movement into your day and strain yourself regularly to remind your body you need your muscles. If you can, ride your bike, stand at your desk, and walk places. You actually don't need to train for a marathon. According to FiveThirtyEight, the 5K, not the marathon, is the ideal race. The trick is to push yourself for speed; to exhaustion, and be sore when you're done. You can do this in as little as 4-7 minutes a day. Seriously. You also don't need a gym. For me, I find I need some sort of external motivation - like training for a Tough Mudder - to get me moving.
The Statistics
That's the science, which I know enough about to be dangerous. But statistics is my jam... and since I had the data... :)
I created a regression model to see which factor: Food, Motion or Runs, correlated the best. In other words, do I just need to watch what I eat? Can I make sure to hit a move goal by the end of the day? Or do I need some sort of intense workout? Or some combination?!
Here's what I found for correlations ( 1 = perfectly correlated. + means same direction. - means opposite direction):
Food: +.61
Motion: -.33
Running: -.32
It appears you are what you eat. What you eat is twice as important as how much you move! You can visually see it in the very first chart.
I took the food one level deeper and looked at my macro-nutrients. Can I eat whatever I want as long as I watch the amount? Or, do I also need to pay attention to what I eat? Here's what it looks like:
Here's what I found for correlations:
Carbs: +.54
Fat: +.07
Protein: +.002
Well... Well... Well... It looks like science knows what it's doing. Carbs are bad and should be substituted for fat and protein when possible.
Key Findings
Want to lose weight? This should sound familiar:
Focus on your diet. Eat less in general, and really focus on eating less carbs. If you reduce your carbs, you'll naturally reduce the amount of sugar you eat. Use an online calculator or an app like MyFitnessPal to determine your daily target calories.
You should also exercise. You don't need to do extreme workouts, but focus on hitting a total movement goal (like 10,000 steps). Doing something of high intensity for a short amount of time is one way to get the overall goal, but isn't needed for weight loss (it is needed for building muscle).
It's nice to know my data supports the science. :)
Future Aspirations
My goal last year was to weigh 160 lbs and I didn't make it. I'm pretty close right now, so I'm going to go for it!
Finally, watching my weight is OK, but a measure I'm more interested in is percent body fat. If I can control this, my weight won't be an issue. Here's where I'm at right now (this, by the way, is why I have a Withings Scale):
According to the American Council on Exercise, I was average and just dipped into the "Fitness" category. If I get below 14%, I'll be an "Athlete".
My desire is to be below 15%. OK. My real desire is to get rid of a couple lovable handles. That way I'll be able to keep up with the kids as they get older. I don't do a lot of resistance training right now, and that'll need to change to help get this down. I have a big goal in mind of next year which should help me get there.
Jessi & I recently moved and I'm on a quest to make our house the smartest on the block. And since I'm living the Apple dream, I'm trying to make as many things HomeKit enabled as possible.
The process, it turns out, hasn't been as seamless as I'd like and so I thought I'd share some of my adventures for the benefit of others.
After installing the August lock I took my house key off my key ring and it's awesome. I can lock and unlock the door with their app. And since my phone is with me, when I approach the front door, it unlocks automatically. Sweet!
I also got their doorbell cam and keypad. The doorbell cam, besides having a camera and 2-way audio (them through the doorbell, me through my phone... anywhere in the world), it allowed me to set up HomeKit. So I can ask Siri to lock the door for me (see the video below).
When I'm walking out, the easiest thing to do is to push the bottom button on my keypad and it'll lock the door. Keys are a relic of the past.
Smart Lock Installation
The instruction manual that comes with the product is fun. It essentially tells you to visit a link which then has the instructions. That's a super nice touch (an assumption they can make since the lock requires a smart phone).
Installation was super easy. All you do is remove the inside part of your deadbolt and put the August unit in it's place. A screw driver is all you really need.
I did find their single piece of blue tape comical. I started with that, and as the deadbolt started to fall, I grabbed my 2" roll of blue tape and made sure it didn't move. Though, to be fair, you probably don't even need the tape if your good at juggling multiple items.
Connecting it to my phone was a snap. You can tell the team worked hard to make it as user friendly as possible.
Doorbell Cam Installation
The DC has multiple options. The website starts off with a questionnaire: How far is it from the door? What type of siding do you have? Where did you hear about us? Wait... one of these is not like the others... Based on the first two answers, the site tells you what parts you'll use & gives specific instructions for your particular set up. My needed the wedge because it's so close to the door.
I followed the directions pretty closely (including checking that my existing doorbell works). I did NOT mark little circles and pre-drill my holes - I just went for it. I pushed the button and it worked. I waited 30 minutes for the battery to charge. I then took the unit off so I could get it on my wireless network... but it didn't work...
This is where the adventure left "casual install" status.
I grabbed my multimeter and tested my volts. The August Doorbell requires 16V - 24V to fully work, and mine was only providing 10V... Great...
After doing some research, I learned that doorbells require a transformer (an awesome name) to take the normal 120V down to 16V (ish... apparently). All I needed to do was find and replace mine. Here's a picture of it:
It turned out that mine was located in the attic crawl space, which I found by tracing the wire from the panel and making some educated guesses (all these lights in the area also turn off, so it must be near them). Depending on the transformer you have, it might make a small humming noise... mine didn't.
After a trip to Home Depot to get a new transformer, cover plate & 3 wire nuts I was in business.
The doorbell fully charged & I connected it to wifi so it could... update it's firmware... Then connect it to HomeKit. Here's the quality of the camera (yeah, I took a screen shot on my phone while steaming from my doorbell):
It claims I have a poor internet connection, which is most likely due to my router being too low (I'll fix that eventually), but the quality is good enough to identify whoever is at the door.
Keypad Installation
This was super easy to install with two screws. If you go with the flat base there's an optional slot to put the keypad right next to it. I wish the wedge had that as well. I got it pretty well lined up, but it's not perfect (which I can't help but rub my finger over when I use it). We decided to put it behind the wedge to semi-hide it.
"Siri, lock my front door."
Here's an 11 second video of how easy it works with Siri:
Obviously, when sitting in front of the door, it's easier to turn the knob. But when I'm in bed & can't remember if I locked the door, or driving away from the house and asking Jessi if she locked the door, this is going to be really nice. It'll also be great when we start to combine it with with different scenes like "bedtime", when all lights are turned off and the door is locked.
Final Thoughts
A couple times while crawling around the house I asked myself if this was worth it. Our house was built in 1959, which doesn't seem like a crazy long time ago, but it was old enough that it required a few special tools and some research to debug the issue. Given that, set your expectations for the set up process to be a little more involved than you initially think. But once it's done, it's awesome. :)
Jessi and I recently purchased new iPad Pros and an Apple Pencil. Jessi got the 12.9" for drawing artwork and I got the slightly smaller 7.9" for casual use and meetings.
And, the Pencil (or any stylus I'm sure) is really cool. It's gotten me into art too. Check out these drawings I made for the Furlo Bros Tech Podcast:
I know I'm not the best artist in the world, and that's one thing I really like about the iPad: It helps someone as non-artistic as myself make something that still looks cool. There's something about the vivid colors combined with copious amounts of water color that works.
Right now my app of choice is Paper by 53. I really like their fountain pen and water color brush. I pretty much use those two exclusively. I start by finding a picture I want to draw and save it on my iPad. Then I import it into Paper, which automatically makes it a base layer.
Then I trace on top of the picture in a new layer. I use their color picker to make sure my colors match the picture's color too. Once I'm done, I delete the original picture and am left with my "artwork".
Whiteboard Videos
The other cool trick is creating whiteboard explainer videos. Here's one I made for ProDIYLandlord:
That was also made using Paper. I plugged my iPad into my Mac and recorded my iPad's screen using QuickTime Player.
I also read my script into a microphone, and combined the video and the audio in iMovie. I sped and slowed down the video to match my words.
(BTW, that opening title was made using Keynote, which allows you to record your presentations)
My mom is ready for a new iPhone. She almost went out and got the current generation, the iPhone 6, but I convinced her to wait until September 9th when Apple will refresh the line up. So she's waiting.
At the same time wireless phone carriers are going through their own set of changes, which raised some questions around what type of plan she should get.
A Quick Economic Lesson
The wireless industry is an "oligopoly" which means there are only a few dominant companies in the market. Usually this happens because the cost of another company entering the market is really high. In this industry, a new company would have to build out a new wireless network. That's probably not going to happen because of how expensive it is, and so the existing companies are safe from someone outside coming in and stealing their customers and profits. As a result, their incentive to have the best products/services at the lowest prices is pretty low.
(BTW, if there is only one company, that's a "monopoly." An example is your water/sewer provider. The cost of digging multiple holes to lay multiple lines of pipe is huge and so one company offers water to the whole area. The solution to protecting customers with these types of monopolies is to regulate them (or just let the government run it) and require a certain level of service and/or price.).
Back to phone carriers. Another general characteristic of oligopolies is that companies tend to make changes together. When you see one company changes, you can bet that the rest will follow because customers will quickly start switching. Since it's so expensive to change prices and/or services, it usually doesn't happen that much (new marketing, new training, new backend systems, etc are all expenses they'll have to take on). However, sometimes customers get lucky and one of the smaller players gets tired of being small and decides to go rogue. That's what happened to T-Mobile.
T-Mobile Changes The Nature of Wireless Phone Plans
T-Mobile radically changed their plans and explicitly attacked the bigger players. As a result, we've seen two dramatic reactions in carrier plans that are increasing transparency and plan flexibility. The first big change happened a little while ago: Texting and talking are now unlimited. Now you pay for a different levels of data and share it with everyone on your plan.
More recently, phone subsidies are switching to payment plans. You used to pay a smallish up front fee, sign a two-year contract and the rest of the cost of the phone was built into the wireless plan. Now it's more transparent. The wireless plan rates went down and now you take the full cost of the phone and split it up into monthly payments just like you would with a car or house. So when you pay off your phone, the payment goes away. So far, no carrier charges interest on these payment plans which is nice.
The AT&T Next Program
So, my mom is looking to get a new iPhone and we're on AT&T. Given all the changes, we wanted to know if she should switch over to AT&T's Next program (which is the payment plan instead of the subsidy). The short answer is yes. AT&T is so keen to move everyone over that it's significantly cheaper than the subsidy plan. I sat down with a sales rep and did the math for each scenario. First, you don't have to make down payment if you don't want to and save $200. Then the Next service plans drop $25-$15 each month compared to the subsidies. So it's worth switching.
The next question: which payment plan should you choose? AT&T has 4 options which they named based on when you can upgrade, NOT based on how many payments you'll make. Way to make it confusing AT&T. Here they are:
AT&T Next 24: 30 payments; trade in and upgrade after 24 months.
AT&T Next 18: 24 payments; trade in and upgrade after 18 months.
AT&T Next 12: 20 payments; trade in and upgrade after 12 months.
AT&T Next with down payment: 30% down, then 28 payments; trade in and upgrade after 12 months.
So, the equivalent of the two-year subsidy is AT&T Next 18. With Next 18, you make 24 payments. Once those are finished, you can do whatever you want with the phone, just like with a subsidy. The big difference is that after that last payment, you're costs will go down.
Now clearly AT&T doesn't expect you to actually pay off your phone. That's why the plans are named based on the upgrade cycle. Sticking with our Next 18 example. If you get a year and a half in, and want to upgrade. You can! You give your phone back to AT&T and they'll start you on a new payment plan. If the phones are priced exactly the same, your monthly costs won't change at all (except for some inevitable taxes you'll pay). AT&T will then take the phone you gave them and sell it to someone else to recoup the rest of their money. That seems fair.
If you wait the full 24 months before switching up phones, you could sell it yourself since you'll no longer be tied to the payment plan.
If you didn't get that, go back and review each plan type and the example. It's worth understanding.
By the way, AT&T is fine with you paying off early too. So if you planed to trade it, but a company like Gazelle is making a great offer on your phone. You could pay off your phone early and sell it. Then when you buy a new phone you'll get back on a payment plan. It's extremely flexible and much more transparent.
Speaking of Gazelle...
With September 9 coming quickly, it got an email from Gazelle telling me I can lock in the price of reselling my phone today in advance of new iPhones being announced (and subsequently dropping the value of my existing phone). I'm on the old two-year contract, so I'm not selling, but it didn't stop me from doing some math.
I have an iPhone 6 Plus with 64GB of storage in good condition. Unlocked, it costs $850.
Gazelle is offering me $336.
If I outright paid for my phone, that means my total cost would be $514 (850 - 336).
If I did Next 12 (20 payments, upgrade after 12 months) here how it would look:
$850 / 20 payments = $42.50 per month. Since it's been a year, I'll have made 12 payments, my total cost would have been:
$42.50 x 12 = $510
Well. Well. Well. Would you look at that. Clearly AT&T did their homework (or Gazelle? Not sure). I don't know how this holds up to other devices, but for iPhone, it doesn't seem to matter which route you take.
For completness, the other option is "AT&T Next with down payment"
30% down x $850 = $255
Plus 28 payments on the remaining balance of $595: 592 / 28 = $21.25 each month. After 12 months, when I could upgrade, my total cost would have been:
$21.25 x 12 = $255 + the down payment of $255 = $510
Ah. I love it when numbers work out like that.
What if you wait a month? Or Apple delays a month?
Now it gets interesting. Here's how much more it will be each month:
Gazelle: I'm not sure, but it's probably between $20 and $45. Apple had lots of delays last year and Gazelle extended the turn-in period to accommodate people. So depending on the reason, it could be zero.
Next 12: $42.50 (only 8 more payments until fully paid off)
Next Down: $21.25 (16 more payments)
Great. What Should I Do?
OK. Mom. I hear you. That's nice information and background, but what option should you choose?
First of all, let's be clear. We're talking about optimizing an expensive purchase. If you want to actually save a significant amount of money, go with Republic Wireless. Their plans are amazingly priced. The only catch is that they only offer 2 phones: The Moto E and Moto X. I actually think the Moto X is a good phone. If I was an Android user, this is exactly what I would get.
But I'm addicted to Apple. And so instead we're talking about optimization and saving less than $50 instead of hundreds with Republic Wireless.
If saved up the full price, should you pay for it all up front? There are some nice benefits: It gives you instant flexibility to switch carriers and gives you flexibility on when to upgrade. Waiting an extra month or two will only cost you on the resale side. If you have the money. Go for it.
As for the Next Program: Do you want to upgrade every year? Or can you wait two years? If you plan to wait two years, go with Next 24. Then actually upgrade on schedule. Don't wait around.
If you want to upgrade every year, the down payment option strikes a nice balance. If you need to wait a month or two, the addition cost isn't too bad. If you follow the schedule, it doesn't cost extra.
Fundamentally, follow whatever plan you choose. If you choose, Next 24, upgrade in 24 months. If you choose Next 12/Down payment, upgrade after 12 months.
If, for some reason you can't upgrade when planned, but still plan to upgrade before you finish making payments, then you'll want to pay off your phone on the upgrade month. Then sell it like normal on eBay or Gazelle. That'll save you a little extra money.
Next 18 doesn't make much sense if you're an iPhone user. Apple releases new phones at the same time once a year, so you're not going to upgrade after 18 months. If you're on Next 24... and get to month 24, but you don't want to upgrade but do want your phone paid off, just pay it off and it's as if it was the Next 18.
Final Thoughts
AT&T's Next program is actually a good alternative to the subsides (except for those of you still on the unlimited option). It's worth switching. Then decide when you want to upgrade and choose the plan that goes with it. If you have the cash saved up, consider paying for it up front. This obviously isn't the most frugal option (that would be picking a cheap plan and phone and using it until it breaks), but it does optimize your dollar while giving you the latest products from Apple.
Hopefully that was helpful. Feel free to ask questions below or talk to an AT&T rep.
We're entering the home stretch of fantasy football and for the first time ever I'm actually experiencing success. I don't actually think I'll win this year (I just lost a big game), but I'm doing much better than previous years when I'm normally fighting to not be last.
A little history...
The first time I played I had no clue what I was doing. I didn't draft well, lost my first couple games and essentially stopped playing. For some reason, they didn't invite me back the following year.
When I got invited to play again, I came prepared. I spent hours doing research on players and actually drafted a good team. I started out well, but it was too much work keeping on top of player news. Honestly, I just don't care enough to invest that much time. So I slowly dropped in the standings and it became less fun. I participated a couple seasons before dropping out.
This time, I got invited to a family league to replace my brother, who is apparently even worse than I am. He uses a "set it and forget it" strategy. This time we used the NFL.com system, which is slightly better than Yahoo's (though, they're both wonky). Here's what I did this time round:
Leading up to the draft
I was asked to join a day before we drafted, which forced me to take short cuts. So I did 2 things: First, I read a couple (like 2!) stories that gave me an overall draft strategy. I also put a handful of players on a short list. For example, they said that if Jimmy Graham is still around at round 4, take him because the amount of points he'll generate is the same as a typical round four player, and he earns disproportionately high points for a tight end. I did just that and the serious players in my league all groaned when I did it. Thanks Internet!
The other thing I did was surf the NFL.com video channels. As it turns out, they have a Fantasy Channel. Can you believe there are guys who get paid to analyze the fantasy game and talk about it?! They gave me a couple more names and talked specifically about the NFL.com system and what to look for.
So I walked into this draft without a planned list. Instead I had a rough outline of what positions I wanted to fill. I won't say I dominated the draft (though I did get Adrian Peterson and Jimmy Graham), but I started off with a strong team.
Maintenance
If you have a strong team, you don't need to do much movement, but you still need to do some. But I didn't want to spend hours researching. So I let the guys on the NFL Fantasy Channel do it for me. Each week they have a Waiver Wire update where they tell you which players to pick up. They can see what percentage of teams own that player, so they know if that's a person worth talking about. For example, one week Arizona's running back got hurt and his replacement stepped in and did well. They noted that few people had picked up Andre Ellington and that we was going start playing more which equals more points. That's the kind of insight I needed and didn't have in the past!
So, I'd watch that week's video while taking notes. Then go search for those players. If they were out performing one of my players, I'd switch them up. It was pretty easy and felt good because I felt like I was making smart moves.
Bye-Weeks
The game gets really interesting when you have bye-weeks. Again, I didn't want to do too much work. For my QB/RB/WR I looked for players on the Waiver Wire a week before I need them. Since I was performing well, I was often low on the waiver (ie. if someone with a worse record request the same player, they would get him). By going a week early, it helped me avoid those problems.
For TE/K/DEF I just found a sub that week. I kept my main player and used another flex position as a substitute. As a result, I did REALLY well during this part of the season and climbed to the top of the rankings.
So, I probably spend 30 minutes a week doing that. I also spend 30 minutes watching game highlights, but I do that every year. It's a way for me to enjoy big moments while not spending hours watching games. If you've ever wanted to play, or like to play but don't like losing all the time, now you have a way to do well without taking up a lot of time. You probably won't beat the person who spends hours analyzing their team each week, but you'll definitely have a lot more fun, which is what it should be all about.
I talked about this map on a recent podcast and wanted to share it here as well. If you click on it, you should get to see the large version of it. It's meant to be printed on a 17"x11" sheet of paper.
This map shows sales in Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon and Philomath in the last 12 months. People often talk about price differences in Corvallis and Albany, and this map shows it perfectly. Of course, this map takes it a another step and shows the differences in neighborhoods too. Often North Albany is said to be more expensive, and South Corvallis is thought to be less expensive. With the map, you can clearly see that.
What's also fun is finding the place you recently bought or sold on the map. We bought two in the last 12 months and I was able to pick them out (one yellow and one green dot).
I don't know if this will become a regular thing, but it sure was fun to make once I figured out all the tools I needed to combine to make it happen.
Want to make a map yourself? Here's how to do it:
I created a grey map using MapBox. They have all sorts of cool styles to choose from. It requires a free account.
I installed an app of their's called TileMill. It took a while to figure out how to use this. It's not as intuitive as I would like.
I imported a reference layer from map I made in MapBox to TileMill (under setting, link to your map's MapBox ID).
Then, I went to the MLS database and exported all the sales in the last 12 months, including their price. This could, in theory, be anything geographic.
I went to GPS Visualizer and geocoded all the address (1,700 of them!) to latitude and longitude using their javascript tool.
Once I had that, I made a .CSV file of the data and imported that into TileMill as another map layer.
TileMill is cool because then I could style the markers any way I wanted using code similar to CSS. I chose plain dots that differed in color based on the price. I could also change the size of the dots if I wanted based on some other criteria.
Then I created a 17"x11" image at 300 ppi in Pixelmator. This is like Photoshop for Mac, but much more affordable and just as powerful in my opinion.
Then it was a laborious task of taking screen shots of TileMill, cropping them down to only the map using Mac's build in Preview app and lining up the layers in Pixelmator. Since a screen's resolution is 72 ppi, I essentially had to blow everything up 3 times the size so it printed normally. I had more than 30 layers to cover the entire canvas.
I couldn't fit Lebanon inline with the other cities, so I broke it out into it's own box. It happens.
I could also, if I wanted, upload my dots layer back to MapBox and then have something to embed on a website. Like so:
So there you go. A cool map that shows sales and a really quick guide on how to make it. Or at least, the tools to make it happen.
I wanted to dive a little deeper into one of my 2012 goals: Spending Less in 2012 than in 2011. I spent some time putting this together and I'd like to share it.
First, I track everything using Mint.com. I link all my accounts (except one loan company who doesn't want to play nice). Mint automatically pulls all my transactions in and adds labels. I find the labels are correct 90% of the time, so I go through my transactions twice a month just to make sure they're right. Mint also has a budget section which I use for all of our expected expenses. That way if something is wrong, I'll know about it (for example, once the garbage company didn't charge me and I got it resolved before it was a messy issue). I also get alerts when there's high spending or I get a fee (which seems to happen too often) so I can take care of it right away.
If you're not signed up for Mint, stop reading and sign up. Knowing how you're spending your money is a powerful way (the only way?) to get control of your finances. For most people, that will be enough.
And then there are people like me.
Once a month I take all the aggregated spending information from Mint and put it into my own spreadsheet. Personally, I use something similar to what Robert Kiyosaki uses in his game Cash Flow. It just makes intuitive sense to me. Here's what one of the character sheets looks like:
It's pretty easy. Income on top, expenses on the bottom. Subtract the 2 to get your monthly cash flow. Then you list your Assets and Liabilities. The difference between those 2 is your net worth. Hopefully that one goes up over time. Clearly, this example is very simplified.
I use Mint's labels for my expenses (plus a couple of my own labels I made). I also have 2 columns for using cash (well... checking/debit) and credit. Here's what it looks like (Yes, I changed every single number - I wish it actually looked like this).
I also have a statement from the previous year so I can compare how I did. I also have one that gives me year-to-date totals so I can see how I'm tracking.
Of course, Jessi sees this and freaks out. So I made a summary chart for her. Yes, I purposely removed the axis, but the lines are real. The faded lines are 2011. As you'll see, at the end of 2011, our cumulative net income dropped below the zero line. We didn't spend less than we earned. Hence my goal to spend less in 2012.
Jessi can look at this and instantly know how we did. A couple interesting points (in my opinion):
Our spending is pretty low, except for a few months where we have BIG expenses. May was the Prius, October was the Jackson property. The only reason September was high was because of inspections and appraisals.
There are a couple times during the year when our income peaks. One is during tax time (we spent so much last year, it was unusually high in March this year. Another is at the end when HP is doling out bonuses. The spike in August is when I sold the truck.
Had we not bought the Jackson property, we would have stayed above zero the entire year. We'll see if we can make that happen this year. :)
I love charts like this. I could stare at it for hours. I need to make more of these this year!
So that's how I do the reporting on our personal finances. That's how I know, to the penny, what the differences in spending are from year to year. You don't need to get this detailed - Mint already does a lot - but you sure learn a lot if you get this detailed.
