Why Did TikTok Ban Me?

A strange thing happened to me recently.

My wife and I started a podcast about real estate at the beginning of the year. Like many podcasts, we began sharing short clips from the episode a little more than a month ago. Some are informative nuggets, and others are pure entertainment. I upload them to TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook.

It's all perfectly normal, right?

 Well, one day, I tried logging into TikTok via the browser to upload a new set of podcast clips, but it wouldn't let me. Instead, a tiny banner told me my account "was currently suspended."

Strange.

I contacted customer service and received an auto-reply instructing me to check my in-app notifications and submit an appeal.

Hi there, Thanks for contacting TikTok! We have received your request about a Content Violation or Ban. If you believe your content was incorrectly removed, please let us know by submitting an appeal in app. Your feedback helps us improve the way we keep our community safe. To submit an appeal: 1. Locate the notification in your TikTok inbox. 2. Tap the notification. 3. Tap Submit an appeal. 4. Follow the instructions provided. Or Go to the video. 2. Tap Community Guidelines violation: See details. 3. Tap Submit an appeal. 4. Follow the instructions provided. For more information on our moderation process, please visit: https://support.tiktok.com/en/safety-hc/account-and-user-safety/content-violations-and-bans#support Please feel free to reach back out if you weren't able to resolve your issue with the steps above. Thank you, The TikTok Team

OK... but I can't log in. I reply to the message saying so. At this point, my thought is that this is only a log-in issue. I sign in with Apple, and perhaps that's the issue?

Nope! Twelve minutes later, they reply with shocking news:

Hi there,

Thanks for contacting TikTok.

We understand how important your account is to you. After further review, your account will remain permanently banned due to a violation of our Integrity and Authenticity policy.

Please note that our Community Guidelines apply to both public and private content, as well as hashtags and links to third party websites. For further information on your account violation, please reference our Community Guidelines: https://www.tiktok.com/community-guidelines?lang=en

Best,

The TikTok Team

Wait. What?

According to their Integrity and Authenticity policy, there are six ways to get in trouble:

1. Misinformation: Inaccurate, misleading, or false content that may cause significant harm to individuals or society, regardless of intent.
2. Civic and Election Integrity: Paid political promotion, political advertising, or fundraising by politicians and political parties (for themselves or others). Or, misinformation about civic and electoral processes, regardless of intent.
3. Synthetic and Manipulated Media: Synthetic or manipulated media that shows realistic scenes must be clearly disclosed. Synthetic media that contains the likeness of any real private figure. Synthetic media of public figures if the content is used for endorsements or violates any other policy.
4. Fake Engagement: The trade of services that attempt to artificially increase engagement or deceive TikTok's recommendation system.
5. Unoriginal Content and QR Codes: Content that violates someone else's intellectual property rights.
6. Spam and Deceptive Account Behaviors: Account behaviors that may spam or mislead our community.

I gave what felt like a reasonable reply:

Thank you for your prompt response. I appreciate your efforts in maintaining the community guidelines. I'm more than willing to make any necessary adjustments to my content to ensure it aligns with the policies.

Also, I must admit, I'm confused. I read the Community Guidelines, and I don't understand how I violated the Integrity and Authenticity policy. I post short clips of my podcast, which doesn't seem to violate the policy—it's my wife and I talking about investing in real estate.

Is there a particular video/topic that's causing a problem?

James

But, alas, I didn't receive a response.

I'm honestly unsure where I ran afoul and am genuinely curious about why TikTok banned me.

On one hand, my views were low, and the probability of reaching a potential investor is low, so it's not a huge business loss. And I only occasionally watched videos, so that's a small loss, too.

But on the other hand, come on! This feels unfair. Banning someone seems like a big deal, but I only received canned responses. I get that I'm a speck of a fish in their sea and that automated systems are valuable despite not being perfect. I'd feel a little better if they gave me the impression that an actual human spent 5 minutes verifying the situation and told me why I was banned.

Or, perhaps I need to Judo the situation and use the ban to my advantage rather than oppose it directly.

• "So controversial that TikTok banned it!"
• "Results so amazing that TikTok thought it was fake."
• "I'm focusing on distribution channels where my ideal investors hang out."
• "I believe in investing in America."

My Judo is a work in progress.

Until then, you can enjoy our controversial podcast clips featuring our amazing results by investing in America on the platforms where the best investors hang out: YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook. They're so good that TikTok didn't feel worthy to show them.

The Illusion of Progress: Striking an AI Balance in the Age of Automation

My prompt: "Anthropomorphic AI chatbot, perfect composition, beautiful detailed intricate insanely detailed octane render trending on artstation, 8 k artistic photography, photorealistic concept art, soft natural volumetric cinematic perfect light, chiaroscuro, award-winning photograph, masterpiece, oil on canvas"

Does there come the point where "everything" becomes AI-driven, and so it loses its value?

It feels like AI has exploded on the scene in the same way the blockchain did a few years ago. At least once a week, I receive an email where a company breathlessly exclaims their excitement for a new AI-driven feature.

It'll automate my business!

My customers will love the life-like responses!

Yes! Yes! Yes!

• Do you need ideas for your social media posts? Use our AI copy editor!
• Do you need to schedule meetings? Use our AI assistant!
• Do you want to provide 24/7 chat support? Use our AI chatbot!
• Want to set rent rates intelligently? Use our AI leasing agent!
• Need to create legal documents? Use our AI paralegal!
• Want to add automations to spreadsheets and databases? Use our AI analyst!

OK. OK. I get it. Computer science turned the corner to make AI models easier to implement.

To be clear, each of these are super cool from a tech standpoint. (Also, I have a company that uses AI to analyze home inspections. So this is a little bit of the pot calling the kettle black... 😬 )

I understand companies wanting to capitalize on the trend. When I bought a small storage facility, I figured out how to onboard new customers 100% remotely. I did it because I didn't want to drive 30 minutes to sign lease agreements, and I certainly didn't want to pay someone to be on-site!

But you better believe that when COVID hit, I touted our "contactless solution" as much as possible.

This feels the same. Of course companies are working on ways to automate tools. That's the name of the game, which The Innovator's Dilemma mentions. But, let's be honest, it's not quite as good as a non-automated version. Like my "contactless solution," these new AI tools aren't as good as having someone in an office (yet?). It's good enough, but not the best possible solution.

Is there where we're headed? Good enough?

Are we headed into a world of blah? Blah social posts. Blah customer service. Even more blah customer service lines.

The real problem is that we're still in the AI uncanny valley. It's the unsettling feeling we experience from a not-quite-human AI result. It's close... but something doesn't feel right. How long do we need to slog through this period until we can't tell? Do we even want that?

The customer in me doesn't. But the business person in me does! Mainly because it means I can automate low-value activities and focus on delivering an exceptional, genuinely personalized (bespoke!) experience on high-value services. Or maybe I'm thinking too hard. If I continue writing articles and social media posts myself, that'll set me apart from all the AI-created content.

Maybe? Let's see how I do against an AI. Here's my chatGPT prompt:

Act as an expert business coach that speaks and writes fluent English. Write a 300-500 word educational article about the problems of turning all services into AI-driven services. Provide 3 examples of how an AI-driven world isn't as good. Use a thought-provoking tone of voice to communicate the message. The goal is to convince people that AI is good, but shouldn't be the ultimate goal. Make sure to avoid generic advice.

As an expert business coach, I have witnessed the growing trend of businesses turning all their services into AI-driven services. While there are undeniable benefits to this technology, such as increased efficiency and cost savings, relying solely on AI can cause significant problems. In this article, I want to explore some of the downsides of an AI-driven world and provide three examples of how it can fall short.

Firstly, one of the most significant problems with an AI-driven world is the potential for dehumanization. While AI can automate many tasks, it cannot replace the human touch. Services that require empathy, compassion, and creativity may suffer in an AI-driven world. For example, a chatbot may provide quick answers to frequently asked questions, but it cannot replace the personal touch of a human customer service representative who can listen to a customer's concerns and offer personalized solutions.

Secondly, AI-driven services are only as good as the data they are trained on. In other words, if the data used to train the AI is biased or incomplete, the AI will make biased or incomplete decisions. This can have far-reaching consequences, such as perpetuating discrimination or making inaccurate medical diagnoses. For example, a healthcare provider that relies solely on AI-driven diagnostic tools may miss vital information that a human doctor could pick up.

Thirdly, an over-reliance on AI can lead to a loss of jobs and skills. As more services become automated, there is a risk that humans will be left with fewer job opportunities. Additionally, there is a risk that skills required to perform tasks that are now automated will be lost over time. This can have significant economic and social consequences, such as increased unemployment and a lack of diversity in the job market.

In conclusion, while AI has many benefits, it should not be the ultimate goal for businesses. An AI-driven world can lead to dehumanization, biased decision-making, and a loss of jobs and skills. Instead, businesses should strive to find a balance between AI and human-led services, where AI is used to augment human decision-making rather than replace it. This approach can ensure that businesses continue to deliver high-quality services that meet the needs of their customers while also protecting the interests of their employees and society as a whole.

We're in trouble.

In my honest opinion, the content is fantastic, but the delivery is predictable and boring. I hope that companies focus on using AI as a starting point and not the final product. I know they won't - its too cost-effective to automate everything - but a customer and hope.

BTW, I also used AI to come up with 10 "very click-enticing" titles. Here are the results:

1. Is AI Taking Over the World? The Dark Side of AI-Driven Services
2. The Real Cost of Convenience: Why AI-Driven Services Aren't Always the Answer
3. Are You Ready for an AI-Only Future? The Risks and Rewards of Automated Services
4. The Perils of Dehumanization: Why AI Can't Replace the Human Touch
5. The Biased AI Trap: How AI-Driven Services Can Perpetuate Discrimination
6. The Job Apocalypse: Will AI-Driven Services Take Over Your Job?
7. The Human Advantage: Why AI Needs Humans to Succeed
8. AI vs. Humanity: Striking a Balance in the Age of Automation
9. The Illusion of Progress: The Hidden Dangers of Over-Reliance on AI
10. A Wake-Up Call for Businesses: Why AI Shouldn't Be the Ultimate Goal.

These are indeed click-enticing. In fact, these are good enough that I combined a couple to create my title. And you clicked, right?

Why Multifamilies Will Be The Best Investment On The Planet in 2023

Did I "make it" if I used DiffusionBee to render the image?

As a real estate entrepreneur, I've purchased 11 properties: some multifamily rentals, a couple of single-family homes, a storage facility, warehouses, and land.

I started in 2009 and could not have timed the market better. And we accelerated our growth by finding poor-condition properties and improving them (known as a value-add deal). And after purchasing $4 million worth of real estate as a solopreneur, I'm transitioning our business model because of three major trends.

Economic Headwinds

We are in uncertain economic times (duh). The efforts of central planning to counteract free market trends are no longer enough to keep the boom going, and now our government's focus is on minimizing the crash.

Despite those efforts, experts I follow - Robert Kiyosaki, Harry Dent, Peter Schiff, George Gammon, and Michael Burry (and others) - all think housing prices will drop significantly. Even as much as 50% in 2023! My experience has been they usually get the magnitudes right, but the transition takes longer because of central planning offsets.

Looking at housing price drivers - income, inflation, mortgage rates, yield curves, T & bond markets, demographics, and unemployment - they point to a highly volatile real estate market in the next few years.

In general, when housing suffers, this increases the demand for rentals. Plus, larger rentals are valued differently than single-family homes (multifamilies are basically a mini-business and valued as such), so their values tend not to drop as much as long as rents don't fall. (1)

Also, volatility creates opportunities.

Housing Demand

The demand for smaller housing is driven by a few factors:

1. People are having fewer kids and having them later in life, so they don't need as much space.
2. People are choosing to spend their income on clothes, food, and experiences.
3. We are now an "asset light" generation, where everything is becoming a subscription. We no longer need to buy and store DVDs, books, or cars - we can, and increasingly do, rent them.
4. The minimum construction cost per square foot has increased because of increased code requirements and building costs. This pushes builders and flippers upmarket - a principle described in The Innovator's Dilemma. The logic goes like this: "Doing the minimum work is already expensive, so we might as well install the highest quality possible to earn the highest margins." This makes new and recently remodeled homes less affordable.
5. Plus, in my opinion, tiny homes are awesome! :)

I see this anecdotally with my rentals. My studios and 1-bedrooms rent significantly faster than my 2 or 3-bedroom places.

Technology Automation

The real estate industry is notorious for slowly adopting technological changes. In 2005, being a DIY landlord became much easier because of Youtube. Suddenly, I could watch someone do a repair, and I felt empowered to tackle it myself.

Docusign started in 2003, but it wasn't until 2013 that agents began using it. Also, in 2013, online rent payments became much more straightforward - and free! - with sites like Cozy (now owned by CoStar Group), but that also took a few years to gain traction.

2020 normalized doing everything online. Now I don't meet tenants face-to-face until I hand them their keys (and I only meet my storage tenants if there's a problem).

And today, those simple online payment websites are complete management suites. Not only do they handle all tenant interactions, but they also help passive investors track their investments. These platforms focused on automating and standardizing routine tasks. Today, many of them are starting to leverage AI models to aid decision-making (like predicting maintenance needs). What used to require a small team can be done by a single part-time person leveraged by technology.

What It Means

Inflation, and central planning efforts to control it, will put downward pressure on real estate prices. Again, we'll likely see significant drops in real estate prices (not every market, but many) and even more falls in the stock market. This will probably ruin millions of baby boomers' retirement plans.

But it won't last forever.

Eventually, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will win his war on inflation, and as we're starting to see, rates will come back down. It won't happen immediately, given the other economic issues, but it will help housing prices rise again. And they'll be at higher inflation-adjusted prices.

Meanwhile, demand for apartments continues to grow, which raises rents. Plus, inflation raises rents. Meanwhile, the cost of managing real estate assets continues to fall. Maintenance and utility costs are increasing, but the overall net effect on the net operating income (NOI) is higher margins.

The value of a multifamily property is determined by a multiplier of the net operating income (NOI). (2) And interest rates are starting to push the multiplier down. So, despite the increasing NOI (which would increase the value of a property), property values are staying the same and starting to decrease.

Large multifamily price drops likely won't be anywhere near 50%, but they will create an exciting buying opportunity over the next few years.

Multifamily Syndication

Instead of buying properties using only our funds, we're opening up our business for other investors to partner with us. By pooling our resources, we can purchase apartment buildings that would be difficult or impossible to buy on our own.

We, the General Partners, will organize the syndication: find the property, secure financing, and manage the property. Others, the Limited Partners, will provide the cash and receive an equity share along with cash flow distributions and profits in return for their investment.

I believe multifamilies are the best investment on the planet because of their consistent above-average returns (10%+), extraordinary tax benefits, inflation hedge, and creative financing. And it's providing something that everyone needs: housing.

So we're excited to open up multifamily investing to people who don't have the time or knowledge to pursue it on their own. We already have a few people interested in joining us, and we're open to more. It'll be a win for us, investors looking to diversify from the stock market, residents looking for a nice place to live, and communities with quality, safe housing.

We've revamped our website as well: https://furlo.com.

I don't have a place under contract yet, but over the next year, you'll hear more about what we're up to (read: you'll see more activity on social media). I'll also be sharing updates and insights via email.

One interesting wrinkle of syndications is that they use private securities. According to the SEC's Rule 506(b), we must have a prior relationship before inviting someone to invest in a specific property. So, if you're even a little interested, let's chat. I can show an example deal and share more about our investment philosophy. We can also talk about your goals. Then, when we get a property under contract, you can decide if you want to participate.

It's an exciting time!

---

(1) There's more nuance, of course, but that's a longer conversation, which I love having! Ping me. :)

(2) Technically, it's divided by a percent, called the Capitalization Rate, but I find it easier to think in terms of a multiplier, like the PE-Ratio with stocks.

Why I'm Excited About Book Covers on Kindle

Amazon released a new update for Kindle that I've wanted for a while: to show the cover of the book you're reading on the lock screen. The Internet and I sighed a collective FINALLY when it happened.

I needed to restart my Kindle Paperwhite (without ads) to see it in All Settings -> Device Options -> Display Cover.

The reason for my excitement is simple. The benefit of the Kindle is that it can hold thousands of books. And when you turn it on, it takes you right to the page you're reading, along with a percentage indicator of where you are in the book and how much longer you need to read to finish the chapter (or book). I also like highlighting, writing notes, and searching for passages. It's great!

But, I started to notice something concerning: I would sometimes forget the author's name and sometimes even the book's title!

Here's my hypothesis: with a physical book, you look at the cover - with the title and author's name - every time you pick it up. I read in 10-15 minute sessions, which means I see it 25-50 times per book over a couple of months. I couldn't help but memorize the author and title from the repetition. It's the slowest method of memorization, but it works.

But with the Kindle, I never got the repetition because the device opens directly to my current page. If the name didn't stick right away, I never looked at it again.

It's the same for me with Apple Music. I don't remember the album, the artist, and sometimes not even the song's title. Maybe that's a big reason why searching for music now includes song lyrics? That's the only information I remember to find a song. I often keep the Apple Music mini-player open so I can see the cover art and song title.

This is, in my opinion, one of the surprising (to me) consequences of aggregators. Is it any wonder that all of the largest tech companies are aggregators? Google aggregated website content, including news (which used to be a major aggregator of writers and ads) & video. Facebook, your friends. Amazon, your shopping. Apple's iPhone, your phone + email + music + calculator + flashlight + laptop + etc + etc. Airbnb (and other hotel & flight aggregators). Uber & Lyft. Netflix. Zillow. Craigslist & eBay.

You get the idea.

Each of these services separated the content/product from the creator, making it seamless to look at multiple options, compare, and make choices based on the merit of the content/product itself. It saves so much time and allows for better discovery. I think it's a net benefit to society. (I suppose Walmart is the best physical example of an aggregator.)

The big problem is that the aggregator leads to same-ness, making everything a commodity. Do you remember the name of the last movie you watched on Netflix? I don't. It had Paul Rudd. It was funny, but not funny enough to recommend, which is probably a good thing since I don't remember the name!

There are undoubtedly significant economic and social consequences of aggregators. It's a tension that will constantly need managing. Megahits, like Taylor Swift and J.K. Rowling, will be fine. And the long-tail of discovery will allow newcomers a chance to succeed. But it's the middle of the tail, like that movie or decent smartphone apps, that can get stunted by aggregators if the tension isn't well managed.

But for me, the surprising impact is the personal one: forgetting the creator, even in situations like Kindle where I intentionally bought the individual book.

With this Kindle update, I'll get to see my book covers again. I'm delighted to start remembering authors and titles better.

Sacrifice, Patience, and Nuance During the Coronavirus

I read a fantastic article this weekend called, "Church, Don't Let Coronavirus Divide You." Even if you're not a church leader (or a Christian), I think this article does a great job of articulating how people ought to respond to the pandemic, especially as things start to open up. This is great advice for everyone. Below are a few parts that resonated with me.

The main problem is different convictions:

"Some will be eager to meet in person and impatient to wait much longer to get back to normal. Others will insist it’s unwise to meet at all until there’s a vaccine. Plenty will fall somewhere in between."

And compounding that is the question:

"Have you noticed how remarkably confident so many of us are in our views right now? Unfounded certainty ... is a contagion at least as viral as COVID-19 itself."

This stuck me in the heart. I definitely fell into this camp. Even at times being certain that nobody really knows anything! It makes it difficult to act civilly when there are vastly different opinions that are held as facts.

This actually sounds very familiar to politics. Though, at least for me, politics often feels like a distant discussion without much influence on my day-to-day life. The pandemic is different. So even folks like myself, who generally don't pay much attention to politics, have entered the conversation with a firm - albeit non-expert - opinion on how things should be handled.

Sacrifice

Instead, the call is to place other's interests above ourselves, to hold the posture of a living sacrifice (Rom 12:1):

"someone might find it personally difficult—even maddening—to have to wear a mask during church and stay six feet away from everyone at all times. You might think these precautions are a needless overreaction. But here’s the thing: even if it turns out you’re right, can you not sacrifice your ideal for a season, out of love for others who believe the precautions are necessary?"

and

"Likewise, those who think the lockdowns should continue should not pass judgment on those who question the wisdom of the government’s ongoing restrictions. Churches should strive to honor people on both sides of the spectrum."

Patience

What a good article! And it continues to talk about patience.

"To be sure, it is good and right to be eager to gather again... But we should be careful to not rush it. We should be careful to not go faster than governments allow, or faster than those in our community can understand. We should be patient with a timeline that might be slower than we’d prefer; patient with a reopening process that will doubtless be clunky; patient with leaders feeling the pressure of this complex situation; and patient with one another as we figure out the new normal. Those who are not comfortable with physical gatherings should be patient with those who are, and vice versa."

I'll be honest, I actually enjoyed the break, so I'm totally OK with a slow transition. Not out of health concerns, but because I enjoyed having an open calendar. I also understand I'm blessed to keep my standard of living, which is not true for everyone.

Jessi and I have talked about doing mini-quarantines going forward. It's a stay-cation: where you stop all normal activities, but you don't travel either. We do take breaks from activities, but it's usually not all at once and we have a tendance to fill that time with other activities. I'd like to institute some sort of regular family retreat/stay-cation/mini-quarantine.

Now having said that, I already know I'll struggle with being patient with "a reopening process that will doubtless be clunky." This is where I will need to regularly remind myself that they're human too and this is new to everyone.

Nuance

I appreciate the final thoughts on nuance. The idea of both seemingly opposite ideas can be true at the same time. We're encouraged to take

"the path that prizes both courage and prudence, and avoids both pollyannaish and doomsday responses. It means we can be skeptical of some aspects of the lockdown without resorting to outrageous conspiracy theories, and we can honor governing authorities (Rom. 13) while engaging them in civil pushback when necessary."

The whole article is great and articulates my sentiments well. I recommend reading the whole thing.

Thoughts on Apple Card

On Monday Apple announced Apple Card. It's a physical credit card tied to Apple Pay/Cash. Here are the features:

• Pretty receipts that provide information, such as the location, about your purchase. They'll also categorize the type of spending for you.
• You get 3% cash back on Apple purchases. 2% back on purchases made using Apple Pay. 1% on purchases made using the physical card.
• You get the cash back to your Apple Cash account each day.
• No fees. No annual, cash‑advance, over-the-limit, or late fees.
• Interest rates that are comparable to the lowest in the industry.
• It shows how much interest you pay if you do the minimum, pay off the balance, and in between.
• The card itself is made of titanium and is a clean white. Doesn't show a card number, just your name at the Apple Logo. The number is stored on your iPhone in case you need to look it up.
• It uses the same security as Apple Pay with dynamic security codes for each purchase and authentication via Face/Touch ID.
• Customer Service happens via iMessage.
• Goldman Sachs is the issuing bank of the card.

Wow! That seems like a lot.

The Good

From what I can gather, each of those individual features is available, in parts, from other services. Want pretty spending reports with categories? Mint has you covered. What cash back? CapitalOne is one of hundred examples, also with no fees. Want a titanium card? Mastercard offers one, and I bet there's more.

For the record, I'm not a credit rewards points hacker. I don't spend hours on nerdwallet trying to optimize my points so my family can fly for free. Maybe once my kids are old enough to appreciate a trip I'll change my mind... Once I see the price of four seats! For now, I have a "regular" credit card that I pay off each month. In this regard, I consider myself average.

To me, the compelling case for the card is all the features coming together. This is especially true if security is important to you. Again, no feature alone is enough to make me ditch my current go-to card, but putting them all together starts to make the case.

I do wonder if the card will eventually bend to the shape of my body since 99% of the time I'll be sitting on it.

The Perception Problem

When I read reviews, most of them are "meh."

This confused me for a while. Sure, there's no killer feature, and it's a non-starter for credit hackers/optimizers, but for the average person, it's fine. Why all the hate?

I think it's because Apple continues to use over-the-top superlatives to describe their products: "The most significant change to the credit card experience in 50 years." was Tim Cook's final statement about Apple Card.

That's quite the statement. It's probably true, but they didn't show me any distinctive feature that proves it.

Post Jobs era, Apple chooses to focus on checking all the required boxes instead of figuring out, and focusing on, what could indeed set it apart. For example, when iPhone launched there wasn't copy and paste. BUT, when you scrolled there was a rubber band bounce effect that made it seem like the content on the screen had "weight," which matched your feeling of friction on the phone. It felt different and significant even if technically it was a UI trick that didn't depend on the touch screen.

Apple Card includes the equivalent of copy and paste but doesn't have any fun scrolling effects, so it feels boring despite actually being more functional and complete out the gate.

Hence the scoffing at "the most significant change to the credit card experience in 50 years."

---

BTW, Apple Watch appears to struggle from the same perception issue. It's a great watch! But they hyped it up so much, it couldn't live up to those expectations, especially when the 3rd app thing didn't really work out. Here's an idea: Scrap 3rd party apps and make them complications only. Then open up an API to create and sell watch faces via an app store with all the same reviews as the current App Store. It seems so obvious. What am I missing?

---

Back to Apple Card.

One option to solve the perception problem is to under promise and over deliver, but underpromising isn't in Apple's DNA.

The other option is to keep iterating on the product until you find that "significant" feature. Here are two ideas, for free.

Show Me Colors

Just one color? Why not 6 like the iPhone XR? White, black (or space gray for you Pro users out there), blue, yellow, coral, and (PRODUCT)RED. Like the iPhone and Apple Watch, the card is personal and letting me make a color choice makes it feel personal. I suspect this will be a future option if the card sells well.

Psychology is weird. People want to feel in control; that they're in charge and making the decision. So when you offer one product option, only one choice, people take control by deciding if they're going to get it or not. However, and this is where it's weird, if you offer them 2 or 3 product offerings, they're willing to take control by choosing which one they want. Notice, they were happy to give up the power on whether or not to purchase as long as they got to decide something.

This works great for kids. Don't tell them to put on their shoes, ask them which pair they want to put on. This works for adults too. I use this technique when working with tenants. This is one reason why offering different colors, payment plans, memory sizes, and product bundles work so well.

Dynamic Numbers

If you've used Apple Pay, you know that there's a default card, but you can change cards on the fly right before paying.

Why not offer the same option with the physical card? Apple Card could be a dumb piece of titanium that can stand in for any card held in the Apple Wallet. Now, this would be a game changer! You have to authenticate the transaction no matter what, so give me the option to change cards on the fly.

Clearly, there's a lot of caveats, and the exact way it would need to work is likely different than I just described, but the general idea is sound: let one physical card stand in for all your credit cards.

I'm sure there's some sort of technical and fraud hurdles to overcome, but that's the hallmark of Apple: figuring out how to bring software and hardware (and services apparently) together in ways previously thought impossible.

Had Apple come out with this, and forgone the pretty reports, daily cash back or any cash back (!), this card would be the talk of the industry solely for its ability to consolidate.

I think Apple was hoping that the slick looking titanium would be enough, but it's not. It doesn't make my life appreciably better. Instead, it feels like Apple figured out a way to make money via credit card interest fees and choose to hype it up a little too much.

James Furlo Accepts ALS Ice Bucket Challenge #alsicebucketchallenge

Challenge accepted!


If you're interested in donating, you can donate here.

Are Gas Prices Rising?

One of the perks of being an analyst is that you tend to collect data for the fun of it... Because you never know when you might need to do a quick analysis. In this particular case, the opportunity presented itself when my mom shared a CNBC article about the inflation of food and gas costs.

Food prices + gas prices = Stressed consumers

"It's official—summer is here. But as Americans hit the road and fire up their grills, they've noticed that they're paying more for almost everything this year. And it's making some change their spending habits."

The article talks about food prices rising, and then talks about gas prices.

"If it's not tough enough at the grocery store, there's also plenty of pain at the pump. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now up to $3.68, according to AAA. That's up 14 cents from the same time a year ago, a jump of roughly 4 percent.  

Retail gas prices are rising as crude oil prices rise due to tensions in global hot spots like Russia, Ukraine and Iraq. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen almost 6 percent in the last three months, while West Texas Intermediate, the domestic product, is up about 5 percent in the same period."

Like I said, being an analyst and tracking data has it's perks because it means I can check these stats against my personal experience. Here's a chart of actual gas prices I actually paid over the last couple of years:

Clearly gas prices are rising in recent months like the article claims, but is it getting to concerning levels yet?

Nope.

The same time last year, I was paying almost the same price on average at the same gas station (4 cents or 0.7% higher today). From a stats perspective, I consider that the same price.

There is also clearly a seasonal spike every summer, and this last winter was actually CHEAPER than last winter's prices. So we should be thankful for the savings earlier this year and shouldn't be surprised to see prices rising.

Now, could there be a rubber-band effect where lower winter prices cause summer prices to jump higher to make up for the corporate company's winter loss in revenue? Definitely. If anything, I would plan on that.

That and move to Oregon because their gas prices are apparently better than other places in the country (that sentence is for you Mom).

The other thing you can do is start changing your habits. Interestingly, the article paints this as a bad thing (you have to sacrifice and spend less). I disagree. You should always aim to spend less. If this is the reason you needed to start eating less and riding your bike on small errands. Excellent! That will have good consequences on your health and wallet despite the inflation "problem".

For me, this is the time of year I start riding my bike all time time: the weather is nice, the days are longer, and gas prices are higher. Combine that with the fact that I live in a place where gas prices apparently don't get as high as other places (and I don't even have to pump my own gas!), and I'll be saving significantly this summer.

The Story Behind the Corvallis Pulse

The past 5 months, I've had the privilege of helping organize an amazing event in Corvallis. It's called the Corvallis Pulse and is happening Wednesday, February 26th from 8am - 2pm at LaSells Stewart Center Austin Auditorium. It's going to feature 8 Corvallis business leaders who will share their own perspective and insights on the state of the Corvallis market. Each talk will be concise and information packed – no more than 20 minutes each. You'll also have the opportunity to discuss, debate, and dive deeper with each speaker during breaks. The cost of the event is $25. Lunch will be served and the event is not-for-profit. All net proceeds and donations will be given to Benton Habitat for Humanity in Corvallis.

The event is going to be great! This is the story behind the Corvallis Pulse.

The Seed of an Idea
It started back in October when my realtor, Lee Eckroth, came to me with an idea. I had been making real estate reports for him for the last couple years and that report was now starting to be used by the entire Town & Country Realty office. In other words, it was incredibly useful.

So, at the end of a real estate investor club meeting, Lee comes to me with this idea, "What if I turned the report into a presentation and talked about it  for four hours." My response: "I love the idea, except for the part where you talk for four hours."

Ha ha. We all laugh at the awkwardness of my blunt statement.

But the seed of the idea is there.

We started talking about the importance of real estate. How it plays an essential role in our personal lives and in the economy. How residential real estate provides housing for families, and is an important source of wealth and savings. How commercial real estate creates spaces for jobs in retail, offices and manufacturing. How real estate income provides a source of revenue for many!

Lee's office manager, Jenny, did some research and found that when you buy or sell a home you have more of an impact than you probably ever thought, affecting a lot more people than you thought as well. A resale affects approximately 50 people's lives and incomes directly (i.e., real estate agent, broker manager, listing agent office, title company, loan officer, appraiser, home inspector, home warranty company, mortgage insurance agent, handyman, plumber, moving truck service, gas stations, hotel, etc.). According to the National Association of Realtors, when a home is sold in Oregon (Median Price $210,800):

• Income generated from real estate related industries is $18,972.
• Additional expenditure on consumer items such as on furniture and appliances is $5,647.
• Expenditure on remodeling within 2 years of purchase is $4,451.
• It also generates an economic multiplier impact with greater spending at restaurants, sports games, and charity events. The size of this "multiplier" effect is estimated to be $13,953.

Crazy, right? We started to hone in on this idea that real estate really is the pulse of the economy. Don't believe me? Look at what happened in 2007 when real estate crashed... The rest of the economy followed.

Inspiration!
So we knew giving some kind of real estate update would be valuable to the community, but the idea of Lee giving a four hour talk still sounded horrible. Then inspiration hit... what if we did something similar to TED? We could have 8 speakers talk for 20 minutes each instead of 1 for 4 hours. They could each bring their own perspective of how the Corvallis market is doing.

We also knew this could be a great time to create discussions and so we wanted time for individuals to be able to meet with each speaker. The name of the event wrote itself: The Pulse of the Valley 2014: Corvallis Real Estate Forum.

Fun fact: Corvallis means "Heart of the Valley". Boom!

We started floating this idea to others and they loved it. Town & Country, Mortgage Express & the Corvallis Chamber of Commerce all instantly jumped on board to sponsor the event. We even had another company so inspired by the event that they're given an additional donation to Habitat. Now all we had to do was find speakers and put the event together.


IN Corvallis, ABOUT Corvallis, FOR Corvallis
We also quickly decided this had to be bigger than Lee. In following the Go-Giver model we wanted this event to be a gift to Corvallis. We intentionally decided to NOT make this a recruiting event. Sure, Town & Country is sponsoring the event and Lee is one of the eight speakers, but they are going out of their way to make it clear it's not about them. Plus, next year we want to have different sponsors and speakers which will really help drive the point home that it's bigger than all of us.

One person we're excited to have on board is Julie Manning, the Mayor of Corvallis. She'll be giving an introduction to the event. Again, because she recognizes that it's an event ABOUT Corvallis, FOR Corvallis.

Furthermore, our intent is to package up this event by creating guides and how-to's and give it away for others to put on in their cities. If a bank in Salem wants to put on the event, they can. Again, this event is bigger than just us and Corvallis.

Why $25?
We get asked this question a lot. Why charge $25? We already have sponsors and the money is going to Benton Habitat for Humanity. Good question. We started out with a desire for attendees to have skin in the game and for them to also be giving to Corvallis as they walked in the door.

Our first idea was to require 3 cans of food... but we quickly decided we didn't want to manage that. I'll be honest, I wanted to charge $50 to send the message that this is a premium event. The Pulse Team had a better idea: charge less and give the money away. For professionals, who are expensing it anyways, $25 is manageable.

Some courses charge hundreds of dollars for their material and I like they way they think about it. They'll say things like, "If you're in business, you know the value of what I'm sharing and the great price I'm offering it at. If not, it probably means you're not actually in business and so this course isn't for you." That's how I like to think of this event too. If you don't want to pay $25, you probably won't be inspired to take action on what you learn anyways. For a deeper understanding, read about 1,000 True Fans by Kevin Kelly.

Adding The Magic Touch
My wife, Jessi, is the Director of Wow in Lee's office (another reason why I got roped in to helping). Her job is to add wow to everything. She doesn't think she does a good job of it, but everyone else knows better. I like to think of her as "Quality Control". Her expectations of "good enough" are so high that something has to be perfect, and awe-inspiring before she likes it. We joke all the time that I need to run everything I create (charts, videos, blog posts) by her before sharing broadly because she represents the normal person. That's partially true (I can be an odd duck), but it also because she catches ALL my little mistakes and forces me to make it better.

What was I talking about?

Oh yeah! Jessi and Jenny have been working super hard to make this event magical. We do that literally in one way by having Hart Keene act as our emcee. He's a magician who's been on America's Got Talent! and does "strolling mingle magic". We think it'll make the event really special. We also have food, gift bags, inspirational quotes, greeters and great music. In many ways, it's a mini-convention.

If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm really excited about this event. I've gotten to preview each of the speakers talks, and I guarantee you'll be empowered with knowledge and inspired to action. I know Jessi and I are already changing our plans based on what we've learned. If you can make it, I strongly encourage you to register and come.

I'm honestly not sure how we're going to top this next year.

Apple's iPad Mini will compete on price NEXT year

Yesterday Apple released the iPad Mini. It's a 7.9" screen - the same dimensions aspect ratio as the current iPad, but smaller. It's made to compete against Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kind Fire HD.

However, the biggest complaint by observers has been that Apple messed up on price by making it too expensive and missed an opportunity to kill the competition. Here's a quick table of the prices for the Nexus 7, Kindle Fire HD, and iPad Mini. Yes, I know there are tons of different flavors, but all of them cost more and this is what people are really comparing.

	8gb	16gb	32gb	64gb
Nexus 7	$199	$249
Kindle Fire HD		$199	$249
iPad Mini		$329	$429	$529

Apple's prices aren't even in the same hemisphere in terms of percentages. Relative to household income they're closer, but these tablets are targeting the cost conscious shopper. So, Apple made a tablet to compete in the low end, but it looks like it's prices are way too high to effectively compete.

But here's the deal, it's made to compete on price NEXT YEAR.

That's right Google and Amazon, you're on notice that you have one year to improve the experience on your tablets.

If you've been paying attention, when Apple releases a new iDevice they don't just discontinue the previous version. They keep the lowest storage device and drop the price by $100.

Look at the table again and imagine this iPad mini at 16gb for $229. All of the sudden it's competitive on price!

Prediction: Next year iPad Mini v1 will be $229 with the intro of v2. JF
— Furlo Bros (@FurloBros) October 24, 2012

Apple came out with the iPad mini at $329 for two reasons:

1. They can cater to people who want a premium device in a handheld size
2. They gave themselves room to drop the price on existing models when new ones come out to cater for those looking for a cheap tablet.

The gamble Apple is taking is that Amazon and Google won't be able to improve their devices/ecosystems enough to better compete in a year. It's not a sure bet, but I tend to agree with Apple's assessment of the tablet field.

Boom.

The Student Loan Forgiveness Act

It's been a while since I've written anything, which as a general rule, means I'm up to some pretty cool things. MUCH more detail to come later about that. For now, my softball game has been cancelled due to Oregon rain, so it's a prefect time to sit down and write.

I got into my first mini-Twitter discussion this week about the Student Loan Forgiveness Act. Thanks @eliwaite for the awesome discussion! He supports it. I'm less enthusiastic. One of the downsides of Twitter though, is that it's hard to form comprehensive thoughts. So prepare for some comprehensive thoughts!

What is the Student Loan Forgiveness Act?
Representative Hansen Clarke put together a nice summary which I'm going to borrow from:

• The plan is called the "10/10 standard": if you make payments equal to 10% of your discretionary income for 10 years, your remaining federal student loan debt would be forgiven. Discretionary is thrown in there to account for the poverty line. I.E. if you make less than 150% of the poverty line given the size of your family, you have no discretionary income.
• So, if you don't have a job, you're payments would be $0 until you get one. No more compounding fees, no more rising interest rates. No more frantic job searching & crying at night in your parent's home.
• The bill will also shorten the Public Service Loan Forgiveness requirement to 5 years instead of the current 10. People will also be more willing and able to go into public service because they won't have to make large student loan payments.
• Current borrowers are eligible for full forgiveness, future borrows will be capped at $45,520 (with no mention of future inflation adjustments)
• Since the money has to be paid from somewhere, it will be funded by projected savings from Iraq and Afghanistan Overseas Contingency Operations; the bill will NOT affect funding for existing student aid programs.
• The bill will increase millions of American's purchasing power because their debt will be forgiven. This will free them up to invest, buy homes, and start a business. Or go into public service, remember?
• The bill will create jobs since consumer demand will be going up due to the lowering of student loan payment.

You can wade through the whole thing if you dare.


Is Student Debt Actually A Problem?
I'm a data person. I like to see facts and figures before I make a decision (a blessing & a curse). So, when I'm told that student debt is reaching ONE TRILLION DOLLARS, I have all sorts of questions:

• What is the per-person debt? Perhaps we just have more people going to school?
• How much is undergrad verse grad school? This would need to be split into "just grad" categories too.
• How much is principal vs interest vs fees? I want to know what's actually crushing people.
• Of the people "struggling" what are their degrees in? Perhaps the loan isn't the issue. :)
• Can I see the data grouped by year, school, state, degree, etc?
• One fun fact: student debt is now larger than credit card debt. Why? If it's because people are being more responsible and paying off their credit cards, shouldn't we be celebrating!? I don't know, and I'm willing to bet nobody really knows.

Depending on these answers, the solution will be very different. Perhaps the real problem is with people who go to a private school which costs $45,000 per year to get a teaching degree. Perhaps those people need to find a different method of paying for school (or better yet, finding a different school).

So is it actually a problem? I honestly don't know. If you have the data, share it with me because at this point it just sounds like a bunch of people whining about a bad choice they made. The bad choice being: going to a school they couldn't afford.

Let's Make It Personal

The average student loan debt is $25,000. Jessi and I happen to have $50,000 left after paying for 5 years (Wow! Time flies!). Jessi and I would be able to participate in this program since we're right there with all these other people. So I'm not just some old curmudgeon complaining. Quite the opposite: we're proactively paying it down fast. I guess we're part of the reason the economy stinks... We recently re-financed our mortgage, and that difference is going to student loans. When I get a raise, that amount goes to student loans. If I get a bonus, or tax refund, that goes to student loans. We're also starting up a business which will help to... wait for it... pay student loans. The bill uses absolute terms like "no choice" and "forced to" a lot, which I'm not a fan of. People do have a choice, they made not like all the options, but they DO have a choice (believe me, I want an iPad, but choose to pay off my student loans).

In retrospect, we should not have gone to Willamette because they charged too much for what we got. Setting aside the whole "found your wife" thing, we would have been much better to have gone to local state schools, live at home and work part of the time. Let's contrast this with a friend who said he started out at an expensive private school. But after the first year did the math and decided his future job as a pastor didn't justify the high expense. He changed to a local state school. He graduated debt free, got to travel, and now has a awesome job doing what he loves. He just had a kid and his wife (woah, he still found an awesome wife!) is able to stay at home with the baby. Jessi and I don't even have children and there's no way we could afford to not let Jessi work. We made a poor decision. We are now making better decisions to take care of our loans.

Where's The Money?

The bill makes it a point to say the financing for this program will come from projected war savings. Great. Except for the fact, and this is what really gets me, the government itself is being crushed by debt. Do we not remember the whole debt-ceiling debate? In personal finances we're taught to spend less than we earn. The same thing applies to the government. Now, I'm not an advocate of a balance budget - that actually compounds any economic fluctuations. Instead, like personal finances, the government should save money when times are good, so it can spend that saved money when the economy goes down, to help level it out. I know, crazy concept - the same crazy concept each of us should be doing in our personal lives with emergency funds.

So, it's not so much I hate this bill. In a bit I'll suggest some tweaks. I hate the idea of the government spending money it doesn't have. All it's doing here is shifting funds, again, funds it DOESN'T ACTUALLY HAVE. Until the government learns to control it's spending, I don't like any new program. I guess that means I won't like any new program for a while... This program might be good. I know buying myself a new iPad would be good, but I, and the government have more important obligations to take care of first.

No, But It Really Does Stink

I get it. It's a catch 22. The economy stinks because people paid too much for college. We could (and should!) figure out ways to reduce the cost of education. My current favorite is Kahn Academy. But that still doesn't solve all the poor decisions made previously. And since there were so many people who made the poor decision, there is clearly a structural issue.

I mean, why are we not all mad at our schools for not properly explaining what we're getting ourselves into? They claim to care about people and helping them become better citizens, right? I guess that doesn't include helping students make wise financial decisions (OK. I'm slightly bitter).

Some solutions

I don't want to be that guy who just knocks other people's ideas. It's only fair to come up with some of my own. You know, be part of the solution and stuff.

• 10% Solution: why cap it at 10 years? It sounds good? Why not just say, "pay 10% of your income until it's paid off. If you're unemployed, nothing is due." You can always chose to pay more, but you don't have to.
• Truth in Student Lending: Loans should be stated in their fully vested amount. Pick an interest rate & time frame for everyone. THAT'S the amount due. Paying off early doesn't reduce the amount, but losing your job doesn't increase it either. Plus, when a student takes out a $25,000 loan, they'll know that it's actually $40,000. Or, the government could not be greedy and charge a one-time 10% interest rate, $27,500 in this example, to cover the cost of servicing the debt. Students might actually consider getting a job while in school once they see the final amount.

That should help relieve current payment woes, it's pretty simple, and doesn't require the government to take on more debt by forgiving loans. Let's try to make it better future too by creating incentives to fix the real problem: school costs.

• If schools can reduce their tuition relative to their previous 5-year average, the government will share the interest earned from past student payments after expenses to service the debt.

An example

• I go to school and take out a $25,000 loan at 20% interest, or $30,000.
• I eventually get a job for $60,000 net per year. I pay $500 each month (60,000 / 12 * 10%). It'll take me 60 months, or 5 years to pay it back (30,000 total / 500 payments).

• If it only costs the government $5,000 to service this loan (I don't know the real amount, but someone does), there's $5,000, or $83 per month in this example of interest earned after the cost of servicing the debt.
• (30,000 total - 25,000 principal - 5000 service cost = 5000 earned; 5,000 earned / 30,000 total = .166 return * 500 payment = 83 earned per payment).
• $83 payments * 12 months = 1,000 per year the government can split with my school IF they reduce their tuition.

• Again, this $1,000 a year is money above and beyond the cost of the government to provide this "public good": the good of society to have me educated.
• So, if a school cuts their tuition by 10%, maybe they get 10% of the $1,000. FOR EVERY PREVIOUS STUDENT MAKING PAYMENTS. This could add up really fast for the school. Over time, past students will help the school fund future students, which is what giving to the school is all about. If the school can't reduce their tuition, no big deal, they just don't get the incentive.
• Our government could get really crazy & offer an additional amount for the number of classes taught online: 10% of classes are online? Here's another 10%! Again, money above & beyond the cost of the loan.
• Of course, that's assuming our wonderful government doesn't find another use for the money, like it's currently doing with the "war" money, and did with the social security money. Knowing that... I like this less. Shock: it all comes back to having a government that spends and saves wisely. If you don't spend less than you earn, doing great things is really hard!

Well Eli, thanks for prompting me to think deeply about this bill. It's been a while since I've stretched myself in this way. I think the bill has some good ideas, though I think it would be better with my tweaks (not including the lower tuition part, I like it much less.). I also think that until our government learns to spend more wisely, any plan is going to cause problems. Unfortunately, I don't see any evidence that any current leaders, or aspiring leaders, are that serious about our spending problem.

image: topcollegesonline.org